ERCOT gas queue jumps 85.5% as Texas data center demand grows

An AI analysis of ERCOT public data found gas capacity in the Texas grid operator’s interconnection queue rose 85.5% year over year to 81,033.87 megawatts in September 2026. The findings will be presented in Austin on Nov. 11 as power markets, pipeline operators and data center developers grapple with a surge in large-load demand.

Why it matters: - ERCOT’s gas queue is a forward-looking sign of how much new generation may be needed to support Texas data centers and other large loads. - The analysis points to mounting pressure on the grid, fuel supply and project timelines as AI-related power demand accelerates. - ERCOT told the Texas Senate in July that it was tracking about 474 gigawatts of large loads seeking connection as of June 2026, with roughly 90% tied to data centers. - ERCOT set an all-time demand record of 91,134 megawatts on July 22, though that figure remains unofficial until final settlement.

What happened: - An AI agent called the Texas Data Center Gas Watch found gas capacity in ERCOT’s generation interconnection queue climbed 85.5% in one year to 81,033.87 megawatts in September 2026. - The same comparison showed 43,695.24 megawatts of gas in the queue a year earlier. - September marked the first monthly decline after 12 straight increases, with the queue down 670.09 megawatts. - SEO Agency USA Founder and Chairman Jason Langella will present the analysis on Nov. 11 in Austin during the technology panel on day one of the 2nd Annual NatGas To Power Forum.

The details: - ERCOT’s public project list contained 79,075.8 megawatts of the gas total in September. - ERCOT keeps the rest in confidential early study stages until a project requests a Full Interconnection Study. - A 3,000-megawatt project in Fisher County that appeared on the public list in September was likely moving forward from those confidential stages, because confidential early-stage combined-cycle gas fell by exactly 3,000 megawatts in the same month. - All 20 gas projects that changed their projected online date pushed that date later. - The agent also reads the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality’s gas turbine air permit list, which shows 21 pending applications totaling 17,249.78 megawatts. - The analysis also includes five Public Utility Commission of Texas large-load projects. - The workflow uses Python to read state files and run calculations, Claude to write the brief, a checker to confirm every number against source data, and a person to approve the brief before it reaches a commercial team. - The brief reports only what the state files show.

Between the lines: - ERCOT’s queue data suggests many proposed gas projects are still in early stages, with confidentiality rules keeping some capacity off the public list. - The fact that every project date shift moved later points to slower expected development, not faster. - The broader market backdrop is still tightening as national and global forecasters expect more gas-fired generation tied to power demand growth. - The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects power plants to burn 37.0 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas in 2026, up from 35.8 billion cubic feet per day in 2025. - The International Energy Agency estimates around 15 to 27 gigawatts of on-site natural gas generation may power data centers by 2030, mostly in the United States.

What’s next: - Langella will walk through the agent on the panel “From Molecules to Megawatts: Transforming the Natural Gas Commercial Value Chain Through Innovative Technology” on Nov. 11 from 10:15 to 11:45 a.m. Central Time at the JW Marriott Austin. - Cleve Hogarth will moderate the panel, which includes Brandon Penksa of Quorum Software, Jay Bhatty of NatGasHub, Scott Vogan of nGenue, Dhruv Venkatraman of Trellis Energy Software and Langella. - The session will focus on AI and predictive analytics for pipeline nominations, forecasting, capacity management and gas flow, plus how AI connects with ERP, ETRM, CRM and SCADA systems. - Forum programming runs Nov. 11-13 and includes panels on market fundamentals, pipeline infrastructure, delivering natural gas to data centers, a Data Center Developers Roundtable and large-load development in Texas. - Robert Bryce will deliver the Friday keynote, “AI, Gas, And The Grid.” - SEO Agency USA will be at its kiosk throughout the forum, and Austin is the sixth and final stop in the firm’s 2026 LDC Gas Forums sponsorship. - More information is available in the full analysis and forum registration.

The bottom line: - Texas gas and power markets are racing to keep up with data center demand, and ERCOT’s queue is showing that strain in real time.